My second weekly weigh-in. How exciting. This records my progress from October 16th – October 22nd.
So what does science say I should have lost?
- TDEE = 14896 calories/week (see how I calculated this here)
- Deficit needed to lose 1lb/week = 3500
- Total weekly calories consumed = 12777
- Total weekly calorie deficit = 2119
This is 61% of the deficit needed for 1lb loss, so science predicts I will lose 0.61lbs this week.
What did I actually lose?
Nothing. I actually GAINED a pound. Needless to say, I’m not best pleased. It does mean, however, that I’m roughly where the science predicts I should be after 2 weeks, because last week I lost much more than I expected and this week I gained:
Weight loss total = 1.9lbs
So what went wrong?
I’m not sure anything has went wrong, as technically I’m still on track, but gaining weight is disheartening. There are a few things that may have contributed to this:
- Last weekend I was in Atlantic City and had a few drinks and meals that I couldn’t 100% accurately track. I tried as best as I could, but still was over 2000 calories on Friday and Saturday
- I had a salty meal the day before weigh in, so I might be retaining water.
- I could be tracking less accurately than I think. I feel like I am being very conscientious about tracking, putting all food into myfitnesspal, weighing portions out and prepping lunches in advance at home to avoid outside temptation. However, there’s always room for error so this week I will be extra vigilant with my tracking efforts
- The science could be wrong! It’s widely accepted that 1lb of fat equals 3500 calories, therefore if you eat 3500 fewer in a week than what you need, then you’ll lose 1lb of fat. I’m sure in reality it’s much more complicated than that, but I’m trying to compare basic trends here. However, what if it’s wrong? What if you need to burn more than 3500 to lose weight? How does your water weight and muscle mass factor into the equation? What if my TDEE is wrong? These are all things that I don’t feel ready to answer yet as it’s only been 2 weeks. At the end of this year, I’ll revisit this as we’ll have much more data to analyse.
This week, I’ve decided to add another metric into my experiment. I weigh myself every Friday, but is this the best way to track progress? Maybe last week I was dehydrated and this made me lighter on the scales than I actually was? Maybe this week I’m retaining water. Now, there’s not much I can do about fluctuations like these other than watch what I eat and try to weigh myself at the same time every day (first thing in the morning).
However, one thing I will try for the next few weeks is to weigh myself every single day and then take a 7 day average. I’m curious to see if this tallies up to the predictions better than the Friday weigh-in, as it should offset any daily fluctuations by showing a weekly average. This will take a few weeks to generate enough data to accurately compare, so let’s pick up on that again on the Week 4 Progress recap.
This week, I’m focusing on sticking to my training plan. I have a free pass for a gym near my work (which is an AWESOME gym), so I’ll be taking full advantage of that. I also have a 5 mile race in Central Park tomorrow which should be interesting, my first 5 miler since the end of August! I’m aiming to fill week three with ticks, no more crosses next week.
Have a great week everyone! Stay motivated!